Moderate Special Weather Statement | Effective 06/19/2026 17:23

Chuuk remains situated between Tropical Storm Mekkhala, which is well north of Yap/west of Guam, and Invest 93W which is located just west/northwest of Pohnpei. A NET (Near-Equatorial Trough) connecting the two systems runs through Chuuk. This provides sufficient lift and moisture conducive to locally heavy showers at any time. With that said, the "better" potential for heavier rainfall will depend on how quickly Invest 93W strengthens and where it tracks. The general expectation is for a slowly-organizing system to track towards the Marianas over the next week, with this system perhaps starting to organize more north of Chuuk in 48 hours. As it does so, a "monsoon- like" southwesterly flow may develop. At this time, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts to 6 inches are possible, which could cause some minor flooding or mudslide concerns. Again, the most likely time for this to occur would be during the next 72 hours (through Tuesday morning).