Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Valid 00Z Fri Oct 16 2026 - 00Z Sun Oct 18 2026
...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday...
...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday...
...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday...
Low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move
northeastward to the Canadian Maritimes Provinces by late Friday
evening. Moisture from the Gulf will pool along and ahead of the
front over the Southern Plains, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday through Friday morning.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The
flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.
Rain will develop over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley on Thursday, then move into the Great Lakes overnight
Thursday and into the Northeast on Friday. Wet snow will develop
over parts of the Northeast/Lower Great Lakes on Saturday morning.
The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.
The threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward on Friday as the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Friday through Saturday morning.
Hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a
minimal threat of hail.
Also on Friday morning, rain will continue over parts of western
Texas with showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf Coast. The rain
will move into the Central Appalachians by Friday afternoon and
into the Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening. On Friday evening,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida. The
rain mainly ends over most of the Northeast. However, light wet
snow will develop over higher elevations in the Northeast. Rain
will move into the Carolinas by Saturday morning.
Lastly, a front will move onshore over parts of the Pacific
Northwest by Saturday morning, producing light rain in parts of
the area. Rain showers will develop over parts of the Southwest
Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
